ITK's price forecasting product

Our core product at ITK Services is Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) price forecasts and supporting analysis of the power sector. We have a healthy skepticism around forecasting: no model will ever be quite right, but the crystal ball isn’t really satisfactory either.

So our forecasts are created with a variety of inputs. We undertake detailed modelling of the power market to simulate how generators meet demand, and use our extensive market experience to form judgments on participant behavior and market power. We cannot stress enough how important these aspects are to past, current and future prices.

We regularly update our forecasts – once a quarter as a matter of routine, with additional updates when required. We believe these updates are what makes our forecasts special: a flexible, dynamic forecast is far more useful than a one-off static view.

Our analysis is accessed through the client area of our website.

The key features of our product include:

Wholesale price forecasts
The results of our detailed analysis is of course a price forecast. But not just one forecast! You receive quarterly price forecasts out to March 2023, and annual forecasts all the way to 2050. These are split by NEM state, and with a NEM weighted average. We also forecast prices by category, i.e. flat load, peak, off peak and dispatch weighted prices for solar and wind generation. A detailed discussion of each component of the forecast is included and regularly updated.
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Future generation mix
The key foundation of our price outlook is our forecast of the future generation mix. We simulate an ‘average day’ in each NEM state, using a dispatch merit order to meet demand, and incorporating must-run generation where relevant. We take a clear view on interconnection capacity between regions, and transmission constraints. Our generation mix forecast and interconnector flow analysis determines the marginal price setter for each interval.
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Analysis dashboard
To easily access the more than 150,000 data points we generate in each forecast update, we provide a dashboard for easy browsing, filtering and downloading. This contains our price, generation and interconnector data, that can be easily extracted into Excel.
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Wind and solar project details
An essential component of the generation mix is an analysis of new supply into the NEM. The vast bulk of this will be variable renewable energy. We have a detailed database of committed projects, and make transparent assumptions on how much currently uncommitted supply will enter the market. Within the annual subscription product, you can find details on committed projects, our assumed commissioning schedules, and the breakdown by state and technology of additional supply coming from the project pipeline.
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Regular market analysis notes
In addition to our core price forecasts, we keep a close eye on market events and developments. We regularly provide our analysis and opinions on the power sector through detailed research notes that are available only to clients. Once registered, we will alert you by email of new analysis available on the website.
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